Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (New Edition)

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (New Edition)
Kenneth S. Deffeyes | 2008-09-29 00:00:00 | Princeton University Press | 232 | Economics

In 2001, Kenneth Deffeyes made a grim prediction: world oil production would reach a peak within the next decade--and there was nothing anyone could do to stop it. Deffeyes's claim echoed the work of geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.

In this updated edition of Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes explains the crisis that few now deny we are headed toward. Using geology and economics, he shows how everything from the rising price of groceries to the subprime mortgage crisis has been exacerbated by the shrinking supply--and growing price--of oil. Although there is no easy solution to these problems, Deffeyes argues that the first step is understanding the trouble that we are in.

Reviews
This book is written in a manner that plainly lays out the issues for those that are new or seasoned in looking at issues of fossil fuels. It was written some time ago, but is still valid today. It came highly recommended to me by one of the top energy investors in Wall Street. Later, one of my professors again recommended it in class.
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Quick and efficient service, book arrived in very good conditions (new book) and earlier than expected (based on requested shipping) - thank you!
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So you went to the pump today and you'd like to complain about the price of gasoline? In Massachusetts it was $4.03/gal (82 euro cents/L). [In Belgium they're laughing at our complaints since they paid $9.18/gal!] We're running out of oil and need new forms of energy. In fact, we've known about it for 30 years. I know we haven't done anything about it because we've been to involved with things of vital national interest (Whitewater, American Idol, blaming high unemployment on women in the workforce, finding ways so that the ultra-rich can leave all of their money to their no account kids, making ketchup a vegetable in poor kids' lunches, defending states' rights - unless it involves same sex marriage, Survivor, making sure today's immigrants don't get the same chances your great-grandparents did, defending South Carolina and Mississippi's right to continue flying symbols of rebellion against the United States, how to ignore black people stranded in a hurricane, how to prevent soldiers from getting adequate health care or a college education, instant replay, flag burning, sex in the Oval Office and, finally, how best to undermine national security: "by outing CIA agents or by ignoring memos stating that the US will be attacked? Oh, we'll just do both").



Now real American politicians realize these are the things most Americans want; but among the things that don't affect their lives, gas prices is near the top of that second tier. Gas prices - like all other prices - are ruled by the law of supply and demand. Demand has increased in recent years as nations like China grow and need more energy. Further, Americans - forgetting the mileage on their Chevy Caprice during the Oil Embargo - are insistent on driving gas-guzzling SUVs that get 13 mpg (18.1L/100km).



Supply, meanwhile, is decreasing. US reserves are being used faster than new discovery (and, have been since the early 70s). There was a decrease in supply after Hurricane Katrina when gas refineries were damaged. Further, in the nation with the second largest oil reserves, the Coalition of the Willing decided to expand the American Empire. While that war was officially declared over in May 2003, for some reason supplies from Iraq are still slow to recover.



But, the largest constraint on supply is its very finiteness. There are only 2.1 trillion or so barrels of oil in the world and we've used about half of them. In the 1970s, geologists and economists determined that the world oil production would peak in the early 2000s. In this work, Deffeyes argues that it will be in 2004 (the book was written in 2001). After that the production will decrease and price increase - thank the gods that didn't happen.



Despite its probable correctness, this book is awful! Deffeyes spends most of the book showing how oil goes from undiscovered to discovered to drilled to recovered. Then he writes a brief chapter in which he determines by his own math when peak oil will happen. Most of it is academic arguments over exact dates between 2004 and 2009 and whether to use a normal bell curve or a logistic bell curve. He then stymies alternative fuels as too far into the future and says we'll just have to live with high-energy prices for ten years. If you really want to know about Hubbert's peak and oil production read the wikipedia article "Peak Oil"; its way more informative!


Reviews
Taking a trip? Need a gift for that engineer or alternative-energy-green friend? Then get this book! For the professional AND the layman, Kenneth Deffeyes spans various disciplines with a good sense for explanation and storytelling. Quite a feat.



He starts with the origins of the oil business and knows what he is talking about. He makes statistics colorful AND engaging. His graphs are primo and easy to understand when he wishes to hammer home a point.



Deffeyes recounts Marion King Hubbert's sage predicition from the 1950s that oil supply and production has limits. And we had better learn about these limits, fast. No easy answers. Helluva history lesson in readable form. Makes one wants to read other book on the oil industry.



As a country and a culture, we've been riding the riches produced by the bounty of past eons. Our oil epoch will be just a blip on the long history of the earth and humanity. Read it and weep, or feel joyful. Your call.

Deffeyes lays out a coherent argument: the road ahead will not be all high speed and straight. We are in for some rough times and it is best that we engage in a realisitic national debate NOW.



He saves his best for last: meticulous explanations as to alternative energy sources. About time! Some have merit, most have gaping holes that will never payback their true energy investment. His section on "tar sands" is sobering and convincing.



Anyone who drives a car or lives in America oughta read this book.




Reviews
I have read a few other books about the oil industry, which brought this book my way. The book provides a lot of interesting insight into why/where oil fields exist, the exploration, drilling, etc. Hubbert's Peak provides a substantial education and not just trivial facts about the size and flow rates of the biggest Saudi fields. This is a great book if you ever wondered why oil is abundant in some places, but non-existent in others.

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